Insights / us
NDAQ
Nasdaq, Inc.US04/21/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+1.13%
P05–P95 span
14.45%
Neighbors
21
Sharpness
0.71
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+1.83%
Outer 90%
9/10(90%)
Middle 50%
3/10(30%)
Above median
7/10(70%)
Below median
3/10(30%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -6.10%P25: -1.21%P50: 1.13%P75: 2.63%P95: 8.35%
Computed at: 04/22/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 20.5 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.