Insights / us
MTB
M&T Bank CorporationUS05/28/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.07%
P05–P95 span
9.02%
Neighbors
31
Sharpness
0.82
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
9 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+9
+6.95%
Outer 90%
3/9(33%)
Middle 50%
0/9(0%)
Above median
8/9(89%)
Below median
1/9(11%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -5.30%P25: -1.23%P50: -0.07%P75: 1.10%P95: 3.72%
Computed at: 05/29/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 30.5 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.