Insights / us
MTB
M&T Bank CorporationUS04/26/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.87%
P05–P95 span
6.65%
Neighbors
21
Sharpness
0.87
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-3.36%
Outer 90%
7/10(70%)
Middle 50%
5/10(50%)
Above median
3/10(30%)
Below median
7/10(70%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -1.42%P25: -0.21%P50: 0.87%P75: 2.40%P95: 5.23%
Computed at: 04/27/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 20.6 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.