MSFT

Microsoft CorporationUS06/09/2026 · historical

Anchor-neighbor future return range

Median move
-0.46%
P05–P95 span
17.02%
Neighbors
36
Sharpness
0.66
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
1 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+1
-2.06%
Outer 90%
1/1(100%)
Middle 50%
0/1(0%)
Above median
0/1(0%)
Below median
1/1(100%)

Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.

Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)

Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar

MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized

Aggregated distribution (density strip)

Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors

P05: -12.45%P25: -4.38%P50: -0.46%P75: 1.31%P95: 4.57%

Computed at: 06/10/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 35.3 · horizon 10 bars

Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.