MSFT

Microsoft CorporationUS05/12/2026 · historical

Anchor-neighbor future return range

Median move

+0.92%

P05–P95 span

18.17%

Neighbors

Sharpness

0.64

Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)

10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices

Realized @ D+10

+6.13%

Outer 90%

9/10(90%)

Middle 50%

5/10(50%)

Above median

10/10(100%)

Below median

0/10(0%)

Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.

Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar

MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized

Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors

P05: -8.19%P25: -1.41%P50: 0.92%P75: 3.70%P95: 9.98%

Computed at: 05/13/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 34.5 · horizon 10 bars

Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.