MSFT

Microsoft CorporationUS04/05/2026 · historical

Anchor-neighbor future return range

Median move

-0.82%

P05–P95 span

7.99%

Neighbors

Sharpness

0.84

Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)

10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices

Realized @ D+10

+11.94%

Outer 90%

5/10(50%)

Middle 50%

4/10(40%)

Above median

9/10(90%)

Below median

1/10(10%)

Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.

Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar

MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized

Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors

P05: -4.73%P25: -2.32%P50: -0.82%P75: 1.02%P95: 3.26%

Computed at: 04/15/26, 03:49 AM · ESS 9.9 · horizon 10 bars

Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.