Insights / us
MSCI
MSCI Inc.US05/28/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.07%
P05–P95 span
13.20%
Neighbors
26
Sharpness
0.74
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
9 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+9
-5.23%
Outer 90%
9/9(100%)
Middle 50%
5/9(56%)
Above median
2/9(22%)
Below median
7/9(78%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -7.25%P25: -2.73%P50: -0.07%P75: 1.39%P95: 5.94%
Computed at: 05/29/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 25.6 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.