Insights / us
MSCI
MSCI Inc.US05/21/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.53%
P05–P95 span
8.45%
Neighbors
15
Sharpness
0.83
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+3.30%
Outer 90%
4/10(40%)
Middle 50%
1/10(10%)
Above median
10/10(100%)
Below median
0/10(0%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -4.45%P25: -2.13%P50: -0.53%P75: 1.27%P95: 4.00%
Computed at: 05/22/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 14.9 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.