Insights / us
MSCI
MSCI Inc.US05/10/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.78%
P05–P95 span
13.66%
Neighbors
35
Sharpness
0.73
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+1.36%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
8/10(80%)
Above median
6/10(60%)
Below median
4/10(40%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -7.01%P25: -2.23%P50: -0.78%P75: 2.71%P95: 6.65%
Computed at: 05/11/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 34.4 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.