Insights / us
MS
Morgan StanleyUS06/08/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.13%
P05–P95 span
14.11%
Neighbors
33
Sharpness
0.72
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
2 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+2
-0.82%
Outer 90%
1/2(50%)
Middle 50%
1/2(50%)
Above median
0/2(0%)
Below median
2/2(100%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -8.83%P25: -2.55%P50: 0.13%P75: 2.09%P95: 5.28%
Computed at: 06/09/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 32.1 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.