Insights / us
MS
Morgan StanleyUS04/07/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.67%
P05–P95 span
17.30%
Neighbors
35
Sharpness
0.65
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+8.00%
Outer 90%
3/10(30%)
Middle 50%
2/10(20%)
Above median
10/10(100%)
Below median
0/10(0%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -13.78%P25: -3.23%P50: -0.67%P75: 0.69%P95: 3.52%
Computed at: 04/15/26, 02:47 AM · ESS 34.6 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.