Insights / us
MRNA
Moderna, Inc.US05/31/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+1.62%
P05–P95 span
8.80%
Neighbors
23
Sharpness
0.82
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
8 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+8
+5.46%
Outer 90%
5/8(63%)
Middle 50%
3/8(38%)
Above median
4/8(50%)
Below median
4/8(50%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -3.68%P25: 0.15%P50: 1.62%P75: 2.88%P95: 5.12%
Computed at: 06/01/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 22.7 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.