Insights / us
MRNA
Moderna, Inc.US05/21/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.21%
P05–P95 span
33.42%
Neighbors
19
Sharpness
0.33
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+0.13%
Outer 90%
9/10(90%)
Middle 50%
9/10(90%)
Above median
3/10(30%)
Below median
7/10(70%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -26.37%P25: -3.62%P50: 0.21%P75: 2.34%P95: 7.06%
Computed at: 05/22/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 18.7 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.