Insights / us
MRNA
Moderna, Inc.US05/06/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.05%
P05–P95 span
10.94%
Neighbors
23
Sharpness
0.78
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-8.57%
Outer 90%
4/10(40%)
Middle 50%
0/10(0%)
Above median
3/10(30%)
Below median
7/10(70%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -5.82%P25: -1.46%P50: -0.05%P75: 1.05%P95: 5.12%
Computed at: 05/07/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 22.4 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.