Insights / us
MRNA
Moderna, Inc.US04/26/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.33%
P05–P95 span
11.61%
Neighbors
28
Sharpness
0.77
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+4.44%
Outer 90%
4/10(40%)
Middle 50%
1/10(10%)
Above median
2/10(20%)
Below median
8/10(80%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -7.45%P25: -2.27%P50: -0.33%P75: 1.27%P95: 4.16%
Computed at: 04/27/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 27.5 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.