Insights / us
MRNA
Moderna, Inc.US04/12/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.46%
P05–P95 span
15.32%
Neighbors
28
Sharpness
0.69
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-4.53%
Outer 90%
3/10(30%)
Middle 50%
3/10(30%)
Above median
9/10(90%)
Below median
1/10(10%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -10.47%P25: -2.36%P50: 0.46%P75: 2.17%P95: 4.85%
Computed at: 04/15/26, 02:46 AM · ESS 27.6 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.