Insights / us
MRK
Merck & Co., Inc.US05/12/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.70%
P05–P95 span
10.54%
Neighbors
32
Sharpness
0.79
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+6.81%
Outer 90%
9/10(90%)
Middle 50%
4/10(40%)
Above median
8/10(80%)
Below median
2/10(20%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -3.82%P25: -0.61%P50: 0.70%P75: 2.91%P95: 6.72%
Computed at: 05/13/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 31.7 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.