Insights / us
MRK
Merck & Co., Inc.US04/12/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.33%
P05–P95 span
18.97%
Neighbors
33
Sharpness
0.62
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-8.92%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
3/10(30%)
Above median
0/10(0%)
Below median
10/10(100%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -13.12%P25: -3.84%P50: -0.33%P75: 2.47%P95: 5.86%
Computed at: 04/15/26, 02:46 AM · ESS 32.7 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.