Insights / us
MPC
Marathon Petroleum CorporationUS05/20/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.44%
P05–P95 span
13.10%
Neighbors
32
Sharpness
0.74
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+0.33%
Outer 90%
8/10(80%)
Middle 50%
4/10(40%)
Above median
2/10(20%)
Below median
8/10(80%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -5.02%P25: -1.49%P50: 0.44%P75: 2.73%P95: 8.08%
Computed at: 05/21/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 31.6 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.