Insights / us
MPC
Marathon Petroleum CorporationUS05/18/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+1.22%
P05–P95 span
13.02%
Neighbors
30
Sharpness
0.74
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+2.84%
Outer 90%
7/10(70%)
Middle 50%
3/10(30%)
Above median
1/10(10%)
Below median
9/10(90%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -5.84%P25: -0.83%P50: 1.22%P75: 3.52%P95: 7.18%
Computed at: 05/19/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 29.0 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.