Insights / us
MPC
Marathon Petroleum CorporationUS05/10/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.62%
P05–P95 span
10.84%
Neighbors
29
Sharpness
0.78
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+0.06%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
4/10(40%)
Above median
6/10(60%)
Below median
4/10(40%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -2.76%P25: -0.57%P50: 0.62%P75: 2.79%P95: 8.07%
Computed at: 05/11/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 28.5 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.