Insights / us
MPC
Marathon Petroleum CorporationUS04/29/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-1.47%
P05–P95 span
12.33%
Neighbors
37
Sharpness
0.75
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+4.66%
Outer 90%
3/10(30%)
Middle 50%
0/10(0%)
Above median
10/10(100%)
Below median
0/10(0%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -8.41%P25: -3.32%P50: -1.47%P75: 0.07%P95: 3.92%
Computed at: 04/30/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 36.5 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.