Insights / us
MPC
Marathon Petroleum CorporationUS04/09/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-1.35%
P05–P95 span
9.99%
Neighbors
38
Sharpness
0.80
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+1.40%
Outer 90%
8/10(80%)
Middle 50%
2/10(20%)
Above median
8/10(80%)
Below median
2/10(20%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -7.81%P25: -3.67%P50: -1.35%P75: 0.41%P95: 2.18%
Computed at: 04/15/26, 02:47 AM · ESS 37.8 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.