Insights / us
MOS
The Mosaic CompanyUS05/28/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.09%
P05–P95 span
13.71%
Neighbors
38
Sharpness
0.73
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
9 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+9
-11.76%
Outer 90%
4/9(44%)
Middle 50%
0/9(0%)
Above median
0/9(0%)
Below median
9/9(100%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -9.55%P25: -1.93%P50: -0.09%P75: 1.61%P95: 4.15%
Computed at: 05/29/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 37.5 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.