Insights / us
MOS
The Mosaic CompanyUS05/20/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.04%
P05–P95 span
12.44%
Neighbors
32
Sharpness
0.75
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+2.96%
Outer 90%
2/10(20%)
Middle 50%
0/10(0%)
Above median
10/10(100%)
Below median
0/10(0%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -7.87%P25: -2.47%P50: 0.04%P75: 1.47%P95: 4.57%
Computed at: 05/21/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 31.2 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.