Insights / us
MOS
The Mosaic CompanyUS05/17/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.53%
P05–P95 span
19.48%
Neighbors
31
Sharpness
0.61
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+8.37%
Outer 90%
4/10(40%)
Middle 50%
1/10(10%)
Above median
9/10(90%)
Below median
1/10(10%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -12.82%P25: -3.33%P50: -0.53%P75: 2.12%P95: 6.66%
Computed at: 05/18/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 30.0 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.