Insights / us
MOS
The Mosaic CompanyUS05/07/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.76%
P05–P95 span
8.31%
Neighbors
25
Sharpness
0.83
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-1.01%
Outer 90%
4/10(40%)
Middle 50%
3/10(30%)
Above median
1/10(10%)
Below median
9/10(90%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -3.56%P25: -1.87%P50: -0.76%P75: 0.90%P95: 4.74%
Computed at: 05/08/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 24.4 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.