Insights / us
MOS
The Mosaic CompanyUS04/07/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-1.00%
P05–P95 span
16.08%
Neighbors
18
Sharpness
0.68
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-4.41%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
1/10(10%)
Above median
0/10(0%)
Below median
10/10(100%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -11.68%P25: -3.71%P50: -1.00%P75: 1.48%P95: 4.40%
Computed at: 04/15/26, 02:47 AM · ESS 17.9 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.