Insights / us
META
Meta Platforms, Inc.US05/21/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.17%
P05–P95 span
10.69%
Neighbors
26
Sharpness
0.79
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-3.70%
Outer 90%
7/10(70%)
Middle 50%
6/10(60%)
Above median
6/10(60%)
Below median
4/10(40%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -5.34%P25: -2.24%P50: -0.17%P75: 1.92%P95: 5.36%
Computed at: 05/22/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 25.7 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.