Insights / us
META
Meta Platforms, Inc.US04/20/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.24%
P05–P95 span
7.82%
Neighbors
28
Sharpness
0.84
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-9.84%
Outer 90%
5/10(50%)
Middle 50%
5/10(50%)
Above median
4/10(40%)
Below median
6/10(60%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -3.96%P25: -1.00%P50: 0.24%P75: 1.44%P95: 3.86%
Computed at: 04/21/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 27.8 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.