Insights / us
MCO
Moody's CorporationUS06/02/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.83%
P05–P95 span
9.86%
Neighbors
29
Sharpness
0.80
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
6 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+6
-1.82%
Outer 90%
6/6(100%)
Middle 50%
3/6(50%)
Above median
1/6(17%)
Below median
5/6(83%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -2.65%P25: -0.51%P50: 0.83%P75: 2.86%P95: 7.21%
Computed at: 06/03/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 28.8 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.