Insights / us
MCD
McDonald's CorporationUS06/03/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.53%
P05–P95 span
16.45%
Neighbors
26
Sharpness
0.67
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
5 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+5
+2.51%
Outer 90%
5/5(100%)
Middle 50%
3/5(60%)
Above median
5/5(100%)
Below median
0/5(0%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -8.35%P25: -2.45%P50: -0.53%P75: 1.34%P95: 8.10%
Computed at: 06/04/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 25.7 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.