Insights / us
MCD
McDonald's CorporationUS05/19/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.17%
P05–P95 span
12.44%
Neighbors
34
Sharpness
0.75
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-2.04%
Outer 90%
9/10(90%)
Middle 50%
6/10(60%)
Above median
5/10(50%)
Below median
5/10(50%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -5.25%P25: -2.02%P50: 0.17%P75: 2.21%P95: 7.19%
Computed at: 05/20/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 32.8 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.