Insights / us
MCD
McDonald's CorporationUS04/09/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-3.16%
P05–P95 span
9.86%
Neighbors
40
Sharpness
0.80
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-2.58%
Outer 90%
9/10(90%)
Middle 50%
1/10(10%)
Above median
8/10(80%)
Below median
2/10(20%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -8.70%P25: -5.68%P50: -3.16%P75: -1.13%P95: 1.16%
Computed at: 04/15/26, 02:46 AM · ESS 39.4 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.