Insights / us
MAR
Marriott International, Inc.US06/08/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.39%
P05–P95 span
12.03%
Neighbors
25
Sharpness
0.76
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
2 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+2
+0.73%
Outer 90%
2/2(100%)
Middle 50%
1/2(50%)
Above median
1/2(50%)
Below median
1/2(50%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -6.65%P25: -2.76%P50: -0.39%P75: 1.46%P95: 5.38%
Computed at: 06/09/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 24.9 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.