Insights / us
MAR
Marriott International, Inc.US04/16/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.11%
P05–P95 span
18.73%
Neighbors
24
Sharpness
0.63
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-4.19%
Outer 90%
9/10(90%)
Middle 50%
5/10(50%)
Above median
2/10(20%)
Below median
8/10(80%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -12.16%P25: -1.58%P50: 0.11%P75: 2.48%P95: 6.58%
Computed at: 04/17/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 23.9 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.