Insights / us
MA
Mastercard IncorporatedUS04/05/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.20%
P05–P95 span
9.88%
Neighbors
33
Sharpness
0.80
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+4.82%
Outer 90%
7/10(70%)
Middle 50%
1/10(10%)
Above median
10/10(100%)
Below median
0/10(0%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -5.66%P25: -1.78%P50: 0.20%P75: 1.60%P95: 4.22%
Computed at: 04/15/26, 03:49 AM · ESS 32.6 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.