Insights / us
LLY
Eli Lilly and CompanyUS06/04/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.35%
P05–P95 span
17.71%
Neighbors
32
Sharpness
0.65
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
4 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+4
+1.57%
Outer 90%
4/4(100%)
Middle 50%
4/4(100%)
Above median
4/4(100%)
Below median
0/4(0%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -5.63%P25: -2.64%P50: -0.35%P75: 2.45%P95: 12.07%
Computed at: 06/05/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 31.1 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.