Insights / us
LLY
Eli Lilly and CompanyUS06/01/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.65%
P05–P95 span
12.99%
Neighbors
16
Sharpness
0.74
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
7 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+7
+8.77%
Outer 90%
2/7(29%)
Middle 50%
1/7(14%)
Above median
7/7(100%)
Below median
0/7(0%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -7.91%P25: -2.76%P50: 0.65%P75: 2.38%P95: 5.07%
Computed at: 06/02/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 15.8 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.