Insights / us
LLY
Eli Lilly and CompanyUS05/27/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.27%
P05–P95 span
10.94%
Neighbors
32
Sharpness
0.78
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+5.86%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
2/10(20%)
Above median
7/10(70%)
Below median
3/10(30%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -5.77%P25: -2.52%P50: -0.27%P75: 1.44%P95: 5.17%
Computed at: 05/28/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 31.5 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.