KMX

CarMax, Inc.US05/13/2026 · historical

Anchor-neighbor future return range

Median move
-0.60%
P05–P95 span
15.05%
Neighbors
32
Sharpness
0.70
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+18.45%
Outer 90%
6/10(60%)
Middle 50%
3/10(30%)
Above median
6/10(60%)
Below median
4/10(40%)

Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.

Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)

Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar

MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized

Aggregated distribution (density strip)

Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors

P05: -8.28%P25: -3.12%P50: -0.60%P75: 1.57%P95: 6.77%

Computed at: 05/14/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 30.4 · horizon 10 bars

Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.