Insights / us
JPM
JPMorgan Chase & Co.US05/10/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.12%
P05–P95 span
11.73%
Neighbors
30
Sharpness
0.77
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+1.54%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
9/10(90%)
Above median
3/10(30%)
Below median
7/10(70%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -5.96%P25: -1.62%P50: 0.12%P75: 1.75%P95: 5.76%
Computed at: 05/11/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 29.5 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.