Insights / us
JPM
JPMorgan Chase & Co.US05/04/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.68%
P05–P95 span
12.98%
Neighbors
29
Sharpness
0.74
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-3.90%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
0/10(0%)
Above median
1/10(10%)
Below median
9/10(90%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -4.74%P25: -0.86%P50: 0.68%P75: 2.81%P95: 8.24%
Computed at: 05/05/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 28.0 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.