Insights / us
ITW
Illinois Tool Works Inc.US06/08/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+1.53%
P05–P95 span
14.42%
Neighbors
22
Sharpness
0.71
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
2 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+2
+0.05%
Outer 90%
1/2(50%)
Middle 50%
1/2(50%)
Above median
0/2(0%)
Below median
2/2(100%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -6.29%P25: -1.24%P50: 1.53%P75: 3.81%P95: 8.13%
Computed at: 06/09/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 21.9 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.