Insights / us
ITW
Illinois Tool Works Inc.US05/31/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.39%
P05–P95 span
20.99%
Neighbors
24
Sharpness
0.58
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
8 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+8
+3.50%
Outer 90%
8/8(100%)
Middle 50%
7/8(88%)
Above median
8/8(100%)
Below median
0/8(0%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -13.41%P25: -2.09%P50: 0.39%P75: 3.17%P95: 7.58%
Computed at: 06/01/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 23.7 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.