Insights / us
ITW
Illinois Tool Works Inc.US05/20/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.50%
P05–P95 span
16.23%
Neighbors
22
Sharpness
0.68
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+1.59%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
9/10(90%)
Above median
5/10(50%)
Below median
5/10(50%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -9.31%P25: -1.35%P50: 0.50%P75: 2.59%P95: 6.91%
Computed at: 05/21/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 21.6 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.