Insights / us
ITW
Illinois Tool Works Inc.US05/05/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+1.17%
P05–P95 span
15.23%
Neighbors
32
Sharpness
0.70
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-2.79%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
1/10(10%)
Above median
0/10(0%)
Below median
10/10(100%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -5.69%P25: -1.14%P50: 1.17%P75: 3.32%P95: 9.53%
Computed at: 05/06/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 31.3 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.