Insights / us
INCY
Incyte CorporationUS06/01/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+1.24%
P05–P95 span
12.53%
Neighbors
14
Sharpness
0.75
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
7 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+7
+13.86%
Outer 90%
2/7(29%)
Middle 50%
0/7(0%)
Above median
7/7(100%)
Below median
0/7(0%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -5.60%P25: -1.97%P50: 1.24%P75: 2.97%P95: 6.93%
Computed at: 06/02/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 13.8 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.