Insights / us
ICLR
ICON PLCUS06/04/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.19%
P05–P95 span
16.24%
Neighbors
39
Sharpness
0.68
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
4 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+4
-1.23%
Outer 90%
4/4(100%)
Middle 50%
3/4(75%)
Above median
2/4(50%)
Below median
2/4(50%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -7.15%P25: -2.27%P50: 0.19%P75: 2.12%P95: 9.08%
Computed at: 06/05/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 38.3 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.