Insights / us
ICE
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.US06/03/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+1.31%
P05–P95 span
17.73%
Neighbors
15
Sharpness
0.65
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
5 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+5
-1.95%
Outer 90%
5/5(100%)
Middle 50%
3/5(60%)
Above median
0/5(0%)
Below median
5/5(100%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -4.68%P25: -1.42%P50: 1.31%P75: 3.84%P95: 13.04%
Computed at: 06/04/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 14.6 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.